Sweden’s Saab is seizing a rare opening in North American defence politics, pushing a proposal that would see Canada operate its Gripen E/F fighter alongside the US-built F-35, while shifting a chunk of production onto Canadian soil.
Saab senses an opening amid US–Canada tensions
The Swedish manufacturer is pitching what it calls a “dual fleet” concept: Canada would still buy F-35s, but add Gripens to the mix to avoid relying too heavily on US hardware and political goodwill.
Speaking on an investor call, Saab chief executive Micael Johansson said Canadian officials are weighing how not “to be too dependent on the US” for combat airpower. Saab has responded by handing over extensive technical and industrial data to back its case.
Saab is feeding Ottawa detailed information on the Gripen’s technology transfer, production timelines and long-term export potential, betting that strategic autonomy now matters as much as raw performance.
The pitch lands at a sensitive moment. Relations between Washington and Ottawa have been strained by public threats from former US President Donald Trump and a pointed warning from US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra about Canada’s long-planned F-35 purchase.
What Saab is putting on the table
Saab’s offer is clearly designed to appeal to both Canada’s defence planners and its aerospace industry. The proposal is not just about jets, but about where and how they are built.
Local production and technology transfer
Johansson told investors that Saab has provided Canada with specifics on how fast it could set up a Gripen production line in-country and how much technology it is prepared to transfer.
- Establishment of a Canadian final assembly and production facility
- Transfer of key manufacturing and maintenance know-how
- Use of the Canadian line to build Gripens for other export customers
Saab is also outlining how Canada could share in future global sales if Ottawa commits to the aircraft.
Saab is framing the Gripen offer not just as a purchase, but as an entry ticket into the global fighter export business.
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The company already runs two Gripen production lines, one in Sweden and another in Brazil. A Canadian facility would be the third, and Saab suggests it could become a hub for certain international orders.
A growing export portfolio
The Gripen E/F is gradually building a client list, which Saab hopes will reassure Canadian decision-makers that they would not be alone.
| Country | Gripen deal | Approximate value |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Ongoing production and deliveries of Gripen E/F | Multi-billion dollar programme |
| Colombia | 17 aircraft ordered (2025 agreement) | €3.1 billion (around $3.7 billion) |
| Thailand | Four additional aircraft | 5.3 billion Swedish kronor |
| Ukraine | Letter of intent for 100–150 aircraft | Potentially one of Saab’s largest deals |
On top of that, Saab is ramping up capacity. A company executive recently said the target is to reach an output of 36 Gripens per year, an ambition that would be easier to hit with an extra production line in North America.
Canada rethinks its F-35-only plan
Canada has already committed to the US-led F-35 programme and is currently planning to acquire 88 aircraft to replace its ageing CF-18 fleet. The budget announced in 2023 sits at 27.7 billion Canadian dollars (around $20.3 billion), though the figure is under review.
Despite the political noise, Ottawa remains on track to buy an initial batch of 16 F-35s. Eight of those are due to be delivered to Luke Air Force Base in Arizona between 2026 and 2027 for pilot training.
Behind the scenes, though, the government is reassessing how much of its future airpower should be tied to a single platform supplied by one ally. An Auditor General report noted that the F-35 plan is being reviewed “to ensure” the aircraft remains the “best choice” for Canada’s needs.
That shift in tone has clearly encouraged Saab. A senior Canadian official previously described the Swedish proposal as “very interesting”, signalling that a mixed-fleet option is now on the table in a way it was not a few years ago.
US pressure and industrial leverage
Analysts say Washington still has significant leverage if Canada reduces its F-35 order. Bryon Callan of Capital Alpha Partners told investors that any move to “truncate” the 88-jet plan could trigger consequences for Canadian firms.
More than 30 Canadian aerospace companies are tied into F-35 production work, a powerful economic lever for the US if Ottawa shifts away from the programme.
Most of those companies provide components and services across the F-35 supply chain, giving them long-term, high-value contracts. A smaller Canadian order risks undermining the case for their continued involvement.
Callan also pointed out another vulnerability in Saab’s offer: the Gripen E is powered by the GE Aerospace F414G engine, built in the United States. In a worst-case scenario, US export controls on that engine could be used as a pressure point, even if Canada added Gripens.
Still, Callan described Ottawa’s desire to diversify its defence suppliers as “prudent” in light of Trump’s public threats questioning Canada’s defence commitments and sovereignty decisions.
High-stakes timing and political calculations
Johansson declined to forecast when a Canadian decision on Gripen might arrive, stressing that “high-level political decisions” will ultimately drive the outcome. Saab, he said, is engaged in “intensive discussions” with the Canadian side but has no firm timeline.
Any move towards a dual fleet would need to balance several pressures:
- Canada’s obligations to NATO and NORAD
- Existing contractual and industrial ties to the F-35 programme
- Domestic industrial benefits from a possible Gripen line
- Relations with Washington and broader US defence policy
For Ottawa, the question is not purely technical. While the F-35 offers stealth and deep integration with US forces, a second fighter fleet could give Canada more control over upgrades, maintenance and export controls tied to its aircraft.
GlobalEye, NATO and Saab’s broader Canadian ambitions
Saab’s talks with Canada are not limited to fighter jets. Johansson said he is watching closely as Ottawa shapes a new surveillance aircraft requirement, widely expected to include an offer of Saab’s GlobalEye airborne early warning and control platform.
GlobalEye combines a Bombardier Global business jet airframe with advanced radar and sensors, many of which can be tailored to national requirements. Canada, with its huge maritime and Arctic surveillance needs, is seen as a natural candidate.
At the same time, Saab is waiting on a NATO decision about a potential GlobalEye contract as the alliance seeks a successor to its ageing E-3 Sentry fleet. NATO had previously looked at Boeing’s E-7A Wedgetail, but that route was put aside, giving GlobalEye another shot.
What a dual fleet would mean in practice
Running both F-35s and Gripens would add complexity for the Royal Canadian Air Force, but also flexibility. Two different fighter types mean two sets of training pipelines, logistics chains and simulators. They also mean more options in a crisis.
In practical terms, Canada could assign the F-35s to missions where stealth and deep penetration into defended airspace are key, such as early days of a NATO air campaign. Gripens could handle quick reaction alert at home, Arctic patrols, and many coalition missions where stealth is less critical.
A dual fleet could also cushion Canada against grounding risks. If a technical issue forced one fleet to pause operations, the other could keep flying. For a country responsible for policing vast northern airspace, that redundancy has real operational value.
Key terms and risks worth understanding
Two concepts sit at the heart of this debate: technology transfer and industrial participation. Technology transfer refers to how much design and manufacturing know-how a supplier is willing to share, allowing local firms to build, repair and upgrade systems themselves. Industrial participation covers the broader package of jobs, facilities and export work tied to a deal.
Saab traditionally markets itself as generous on both fronts, while the US tends to be more restrictive, especially on sensitive stealth technologies. That difference is part of what makes the Gripen pitch attractive to Canada’s industry, but it also carries risks. Deep dependence on foreign tech, even with transfer agreements, can still be exposed to political shifts, export controls or sanctions in supplier countries.
For Canada, the choice is less about picking a “winner” and more about how to balance sovereignty, alliance politics, and value for money across decades. The Gripen offer adds a new variable into that equation, one that increases Ottawa’s bargaining power but also raises the stakes with its closest ally.
Originally posted 2026-02-07 11:21:17.