Japan is pushing through a historic military build-up, and that shift could soon nudge France out of the global top 10 defence spenders. Behind the headlines sit hard numbers, new ships, swarms of drones and a clear message to Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow: the era of Japanese restraint is fading fast.
Japan’s record defence budget puts France under pressure
Tokyo has submitted a request for a 2025 defence budget of around $60.2 billion, roughly €55.3 billion. For a country that once capped defence spending at about 1% of GDP and wrapped its constitution in pacifist language, this marks a dramatic change of course.
By comparison, France’s military expenditure in 2024 is estimated at around €56.6 billion. The gap between the two is now razor-thin. If Japan keeps ramping up its spending while Paris moves more cautiously, the balance will flip.
Japan now sits just behind France on global defence spending tables – and the trajectory favours Tokyo.
Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) places Japan tenth worldwide in 2024, with France in ninth position. The Japanese 2025 request, if fully adopted and maintained, could make that list look very different by the end of the decade.
Why Japan is rearming: three neighbours, one anxiety
Japan’s rearmament is not happening in a vacuum. The country sits in a tough neighbourhood, squeezed between three nuclear-armed powers: China, North Korea and Russia.
- China is expanding its navy at speed and increasing pressure around Taiwan and the East China Sea.
- North Korea continues to test ballistic missiles, some of which overfly or threaten Japanese territory.
- Russia has boosted its military presence in the Pacific, including submarine activity near key sea lanes.
Japanese leaders present the budget as an attempt to build a 21st-century force able to defend long coastlines, remote islands and vital sea routes without relying solely on US protection.
Shield: a digital wall around Japan’s 30,000 km of coast
One of the flagship projects inside the budget is a coastal defence architecture known as SHIELD, short for “Synchronized, Hybrid, Integrated and Enhanced Littoral Defense”. The goal is to cover Japan’s nearly 29,751 kilometres of coastline with sensors, unmanned systems and rapid-response weapons.
The SHIELD programme alone will receive more than €800 million in 2026. It is built around layers of drones and remote-operated systems:
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- Strike-capable aerial drones launched from frigates
- Surveillance drones operating from ships and shore bases
- Uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) patrolling coastal waters
- A remote-controlled fleet integrated with new-generation frigates
The Japanese navy has already validated integration of the US-made V-BAT drone, produced by Shield AI, on future 1,900-tonne patrol ships. Tokyo plans to buy six V-BAT systems from 2025, alongside Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and heavier MQ-9B SeaGuardian platforms for long-range maritime surveillance.
Japan is moving from a traditional fleet to a networked “system of systems” built on drones, sensors and data links.
Tokyo has even carved out €15 million specifically to test simultaneous coordination of multiple drone types – a clear sign that swarming tactics and distributed operations are part of the future concept.
New frigates, bigger missiles and Australian interest
A more heavily armed New FFM
Beyond drones, Japan is investing in steel. A new multi-role frigate model dubbed the “New FFM”, based on the Mogami class, will receive €713.9 million for a single unit ordered this year.
The ship will feature a lengthened hull, greater armament capacity and stronger anti-submarine capabilities. It will be able to carry more missiles, including updated Type 12 land-attack and anti-ship missiles, the Type 17 anti-ship missile, and two new surface-to-air systems known as “NSAM” and “A-SAM”.
Crucially, vertical launch system (VLS) cells will double from 16 to 32. That provides more slots for air-defence, anti-ship or land-attack missiles, making each frigate far more lethal and versatile.
This is not just about domestic defence. Canberra has selected this Japanese design to equip the Royal Australian Navy, creating the basis for deeper Tokyo–Canberra cooperation in shipbuilding and shared logistics.
Aegis destroyers to replace an abandoned land system
Japan previously planned to host a land-based missile defence system called Aegis Ashore, but scrapped it in 2020 over safety and political concerns. Instead, it is funding two next-generation Aegis-equipped destroyers, referred to as ASEV, with a budget of around €545.5 million.
These ships will be huge by regional standards: 190 metres long, 25 metres wide and displacing more than 16,000 tonnes, larger than some US and Chinese surface combatants. Trials are expected from 2026, with deliveries in 2027 and 2028.
The destroyers will carry the AN/SPY-7(V)1 radar from Lockheed Martin, produced under licence with Japanese firm Fujitsu. This advanced sensor is designed to detect and track ballistic and potentially hypersonic missiles, giving Tokyo a central node in any regional missile shield.
From helicopter carriers to F-35B launch pads
Japan’s two Izumo-class helicopter carriers, JS Izumo and JS Kaga, are undergoing major work to handle F-35B stealth fighters capable of short take-off and vertical landing. For 2026, the refit is priced at €195 million.
The JS Izumo will receive new deck lighting systems to synchronise aircraft movements with F-35B onboard systems, while JS Kaga will undergo structural reinforcement in its hangar to support jets and support equipment.
Another €650,000 is set aside for detailed analysis of early operations. Those lessons could feed into discussions over a future, purpose-built Japanese aircraft carrier – a step that would have been politically unthinkable a generation ago.
Submarine deterrence and long-range strike
Taigei-class subs and hidden missiles
Submarines remain a quiet cornerstone of Japan’s defence posture. In 2026, Tokyo plans to:
- Build the 10th Taigei-class diesel-electric submarine (3,000 tonnes) for around €816 million
- Buy long-range, submarine-launched missiles worth €110.2 million
- Acquire an enhanced version of the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile for €246.4 million
The new submarine-launched missile is intended to strike both ships and land targets from standoff distances, fired through standard torpedo tubes. Deployed on the Taigei class, due to be delivered by 2027, this would give Japan a discreet deep-strike option across the region.
Quiet additions: patrol ships, Tomahawks and hypersonic defence
Smaller line items in the budget sketch out Japan’s longer-term ambitions. A snapshot for 2026:
| Project | Planned 2026 spend | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Two patrol ships | €195 million | 1,900-tonne vessels for maritime surveillance |
| Tomahawk integration | €11.6 million | Fitting US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles to destroyers JS Myoko and JS Atago |
| Awaji-class minesweeper | €232.8 million | Seventh ship in the class, 690 tonnes, mine countermeasures |
| GPI hypersonic interceptor | €378.6 million | Joint US–Japan programme to shoot down hypersonic missiles |
The GPI, or Glide Phase Interceptor, aims to hit hypersonic weapons during the “glide” part of their flight, when they travel at high speed within the atmosphere and can manoeuvre unpredictably. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will work on the second-stage motor and guidance systems, while the US side leads overall design and integration. Deployment is envisioned sometime in the 2030s.
What this means for France and the global top 10
For decades, France has sat comfortably among the world’s biggest defence spenders, backed by a nuclear deterrent, a blue-water navy and a strong arms export industry. Japan, constrained by its constitution and political caution, stayed behind.
That gap has now almost closed, raising real questions about where France will sit in global rankings by the mid-2030s.
If Tokyo continues to grow its budget and shifts from importing high-end systems to co-developing and exporting them, it could also challenge European defence industries. Japanese ship designs are already attracting foreign partners, and its advanced electronics make it a serious contender in future missile defence and naval projects.
France still holds key advantages – nuclear submarines, an independent deterrent, a combat-proven carrier group and established arms markets from the Middle East to India. Yet budgets across Asia are rising faster than those in much of Europe, and rankings built on raw spending numbers are likely to tilt eastwards.
Key terms and what they mean for non-specialists
What is an Aegis destroyer?
An Aegis destroyer is a warship equipped with the Aegis combat system, originally developed by the United States. The system links powerful radars, missiles and computers to detect, track and shoot down incoming aircraft and missiles.
Japan’s future ASEV ships will act as mobile missile-defence hubs, able to plug into US and allied networks across the Pacific.
Why hypersonic missiles matter
Hypersonic missiles travel at least five times the speed of sound and often fly at lower altitudes than traditional ballistic missiles. They can change direction mid-flight, making them harder to track and intercept.
The GPI project shows how seriously Tokyo and Washington take this threat. If they manage to field a reliable interceptor, it could reshape calculations in any crisis with China or North Korea.
Possible scenarios for the 2030s
If current trends hold, the early 2030s could see Japan sitting above France in global defence spending lists, backed by a larger fleet of advanced submarines, Aegis destroyers and F-35-capable carriers. The country would remain formally defensive, but its ability to strike back at long range would be much stronger.
For Europe, and France in particular, that shift raises practical questions: cooperation or competition on arms exports, the balance of attention between the Indo-Pacific and Europe’s own neighbourhood, and the ability to keep high-tech industries funded while domestic budgets tighten.
One realistic outcome is a more crowded top tier of military powers, where mid-sized states like France and Japan handle greater regional responsibilities alongside the US and China. In that environment, a single percentage point of GDP – spent or not spent – could decide who stays inside the global top 10, and who slips out.
Originally posted 2026-02-04 11:59:58.