In recent days, India has moved from simply buying aircraft off the shelf to sketching out an entire carrier air wing built around the Rafale M, with deep industrial consequences for both New Delhi and Paris.
India’s Defence Council signals a new phase
On 12 February 2026, India’s Defence Acquisition Council approved a vast package of weapons projects worth an estimated €33.5 billion, according to figures released by the country’s Ministry of Defence. Hidden inside that figure is a clear shift: the Rafale is no longer just a gap-filler, but a central plank of India’s long‑term air strategy.
The Indian Air Force currently fields only 29 fighter squadrons, far below the official target of 42. Each squadron typically operates between 16 and 18 aircraft. That shortfall is not temporary; it has become structural, as older jets are retired faster than they are replaced.
New Delhi’s answer is a massive order for 114 Rafale fighters under the MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) programme. This would rebuild mass, replace ageing platforms and standardise much of the fleet around a modern multirole aircraft already in service with Indian crews.
The Rafale is being treated less as a simple interceptor and more as a long-range strategic asset, able to project power and support nuclear and conventional deterrence.
Indian officials highlight the aircraft’s ability to conduct deep offensive strikes, maintain air superiority across different conflict levels and operate from austere or distant bases. For a country facing two nuclear-armed neighbours and contested maritime zones, that flexibility matters.
Rafale M: from token capability to full carrier fleet
Alongside the air force deal, the naval version of the jet, the Rafale M, is moving into the spotlight. India has already signed off on a separate order for 26 Rafale M aircraft for its aircraft carriers, valued at about €5.9 billion. These jets are expected to operate from the indigenous carrier INS Vikrant and, eventually, a future larger carrier.
Indian and international media now report that New Delhi is studying an extra batch of 31 Rafale M, on top of the 114 land-based Rafales. If agreed, the Indian Navy could operate up to 57 carrier‑borne Rafales, enough to fully equip two carrier air wings and hold a small reserve.
A second Rafale M contract would transform the programme from a limited bridge solution into the backbone of India’s carrier aviation for decades.
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For Dassault Aviation, that shift in scale changes everything. Support, training and logistics would move from ad hoc arrangements to a long‑term ecosystem: dedicated training pipelines for naval pilots, local stocks of critical spares and specialised maintenance for the punishing carrier environment.
What 57 Rafale M could mean at sea
A fleet approaching 60 naval Rafales would give India options at sea it has not had before. In practical terms, it could allow:
- One carrier deployed with a full air wing, while a second prepares or refits
- Continuous coverage for air defence of task groups in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal
- Strike packages against land targets hundreds of kilometres inland from the coastline
- More credible maritime patrols and stand‑off anti‑ship missions
Such numbers would also make it easier to manage long maintenance cycles, pilot rotations and the training of deck crews, who face some of the most demanding conditions in aviation.
From import to “Make in India” production
India has operated 36 Rafales since 2020, deployed at bases facing Pakistan and China. That operational experience has reduced the political and technical risk of ordering more. Pilots, ground crews and planners already know what the jet can do, and that matters when billions are on the line.
The next phase, though, is not just about buying more aircraft. It is about where they are built. Plans being discussed would see only 18 of the new land‑based Rafales delivered directly from France. The remaining 96 would be manufactured in India under the country’s “Make in India” strategy.
The Rafale programme is evolving from a pure arms deal into a joint industrial venture, with factories, jobs and technology transfers on Indian soil.
Local production means setting up assembly lines, qualifying Indian suppliers and aligning them with stringent French and Indian airworthiness standards. Early projections suggest that the first India‑made fuselage sections could roll off local lines around 2028, indicating a tight schedule for tooling, training and certification.
Industrial balance: opportunities and constraints
For France, this brings both benefits and constraints. On one hand, a long production run for India stabilises the Rafale line, keeps the workforce employed and sustains the broader supply chain at home. On the other, Dassault must juggle rising export demand with French Air and Space Force needs, while transferring some work abroad.
| Aspect | France | India |
|---|---|---|
| Aircraft production | Final assembly of first batches, technology oversight | Gradual assembly of 96+ jets under licence |
| Engines and key systems | Design authority, core components, sensitive tech | Local assembly lines, selected sub‑components |
| Support & maintenance | High‑end repairs, upgrades | Daily maintenance, depot‑level overhauls, spares hubs |
Managing export controls, intellectual property and quality control across multiple sites will be a permanent test for both governments and industry partners.
Engines and supply chains: Safran’s pivotal role
The Rafale uses the French‑built M88 turbofan engine, produced by Safran Aircraft Engines. The powerplant is a strategic technology, and decisions about where it is built carry political weight.
Safran has indicated it is prepared to set up an M88 assembly line in India and to rely more heavily on Indian suppliers if the full Rafale package goes ahead. For New Delhi, this is a major prize: it would bring high‑value aerospace work to local firms and support ambitions to build indigenous fighter engines in the future.
Local assembly of the M88 would cut logistics times and strengthen India’s ability to keep its Rafale fleet flying in a crisis.
For carrier‑based Rafales, engine availability is critical. The naval environment exposes engines and airframes to salt corrosion, sudden power changes, catapult launches and hard arrested landings. Quick access to spare parts and overhaul facilities inside India reduces dependence on long overseas supply chains that might be disrupted in wartime or during diplomatic tensions.
Long-term strategic footprint
If the second Rafale M contract becomes reality, France will gain a durable foothold in India’s combat aviation sector. The country would be tied into French standards, weapon systems and upgrade paths for many years, making a switch to a rival fighter less attractive.
At the same time, India would gain bargaining power and technical competence. Running assembly lines and engine plants forces local industry to climb the learning curve: mastering precision machining, advanced materials, avionics integration and systems testing.
What this means in practice for India’s military posture
For readers less familiar with military jargon, a few terms help clarify what is changing:
- Carrier air wing: The full package of aircraft embarked on an aircraft carrier, typically fighters, helicopters and support planes.
- Multirole fighter: An aircraft able to conduct air defence, ground attack, reconnaissance and sometimes nuclear missions, instead of being optimised for just one role.
- Deterrence: The ability to convince an adversary that the costs of aggression would outweigh any gains, partly by showing credible long‑range strike capability.
With a larger Rafale fleet, India could, for instance, respond faster to a border flare‑up in the Himalayas while still maintaining combat air patrols over the Indian Ocean. Carrier‑borne Rafales could provide air cover to a task group escorting tankers in the Arabian Sea, while land‑based Rafales conduct stand‑off strikes against hostile missile sites.
Double‑hatted capabilities also create some risks. Heavy reliance on one aircraft type ties a big share of national air power to the health of a single industrial ecosystem. Any major technical issue, export restriction or supply chain disruption would have wide effects. That is one reason why Indian planners still seek a mix of imported and home‑grown aircraft programmes, including the Tejas and future AMCA stealth fighter.
Scenarios and potential friction points
Several scenarios could stress‑test the Rafale‑centred model:
- High‑intensity conflict: Sustained operations against a well‑armed opponent would rapidly consume spares and munitions, putting the new Indian assembly lines and depots under pressure.
- Technology disputes: Disagreements over software access, upgrades or weapons integration could slow modernisation, especially if India seeks to add non‑French missiles or pods.
- Budget shocks: Economic downturns or political changes might delay payments or stretch out deliveries, complicating industrial planning both in France and India.
Balanced against that are clear upsides: more predictable maintenance cycles, better training cohesion and a gradual build‑up of India’s own aerospace skills. For Western suppliers, success in India can also unlock other export opportunities by proving that complex fighter production can be spread across continents without losing control of key technologies.
The next months will show whether New Delhi turns the tentative extra 31 Rafale M into a signature on paper. If it does, the Indian Ocean may soon see carrier decks lined with French‑designed jets assembled, at least in part, in Indian factories.