Scientists tracking the planet’s largest ocean say the coming years won’t just bring “unusual” conditions, but a reshaped climate rhythm likely to touch daily life from California to Europe.
From 2024’s heat records to a new turning point
Climate researchers keep circling back to one year: 2024. It still stands as the hottest year ever recorded globally, even against a background of long‑term warming.
Two drivers stood out:
- Rising greenhouse gas emissions steadily pushing global temperatures higher.
- An intense El Niño episode, adding a short, sharp burst of extra heat.
On their own, greenhouse gases would already be lifting the global average. El Niño acted like throwing petrol on a slow‑burning fire. Surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ran much warmer than usual between spring 2023 and spring 2024. That extra ocean heat released into the atmosphere, nudging global temperatures to new records.
El Niño and La Niña no longer simply add a bit of natural wobble to the climate. On top of long‑term warming, they now push local extremes into new territory.
As the strong El Niño of 2023‑24 faded, the Pacific started to shift again. Models now suggest that by 2026 the climate system will be deeply locked into a different phase, with consequences for rainfall, storms and heatwaves well beyond the tropics.
El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific’s mood swings
The climate engine behind these swings is called ENSO – the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. It flips between three broad states:
- El Niño: warmer‑than‑average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- La Niña: cooler‑than‑average waters in roughly the same belt.
- Neutral: temperatures close to the long‑term average, without a strong tilt either way.
Each phase rearranges tropical rainfall and jet streams. That, in turn, changes where storms track, which regions dry out, and which get deluged. El Niño years tend to be globally warmer; La Niña years are typically a little cooler on the global average, even as some areas see sharp local extremes.
What the last El Niño changed
The 2023‑24 El Niño lasted about a year. It amplified global warming already driven by human emissions. In satellite and ocean data, it showed up as a band of intense red – warmer anomalies – stretching along the equator of the Pacific.
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That added heat helped push 12‑month global averages well past 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels at times, raising fears that the Paris Agreement thresholds could soon be routinely breached in individual years, even if not yet on a long‑term basis.
When El Niño rides on top of an already warmed ocean, it can turn what used to be “rare extremes” into events that happen several times in a decade.
Why scientists are watching 2026 so closely
Climate models used by major forecasting centres point towards a fresh, distinctive phase around 2026. Current conditions hint that the Pacific will not simply slip back into a calm, neutral state. Instead, a strong La Niña is increasingly likely after the recent El Niño, and that could align with continued record‑high greenhouse gas levels.
That combination matters. In the past, La Niña slightly offset human‑driven warming, pulling global averages down by a fraction of a degree for a year or two. Under today’s altered baseline, La Niña no longer guarantees relief. It simply changes where the harshest impacts strike.
| Phase | Typical global temperature effect | Frequent regional impacts |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño | Warmer than average globally | Drier in parts of Australia, wetter winters in southern US, drought risk in parts of Amazonia |
| La Niña | Slightly cooler global average | Stronger Atlantic hurricanes, heavy rain in Southeast Asia, drought in parts of South America |
| Neutral | Close to long‑term trend | Impacts depend more on other patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation |
What a new Pacific phase could mean for Europe and the US
ENSO events start in the tropical Pacific, but the waves they send through the atmosphere often reach Europe and North America within weeks. Changes in high‑altitude winds can shift storm tracks and pressure patterns over the Atlantic.
For western Europe, a strong ENSO phase can tilt the odds towards particular types of seasons:
- Winters with more frequent storms and heavy rain, or instead long, dry, chilly spells.
- Summer heatwaves that arrive earlier or last longer than usual.
- Increased risk of flash floods if intense rainfall coincides with saturated soils.
France and the UK have already experienced a string of unusual seasons over the past few years: heatwaves followed by violent storms, drenching autumns, and winters oscillating between balmy and brutally wet. A renewed, strong Pacific signal layered over global warming raises the chance that such sequences will become more regular.
The Pacific does not dictate the exact weather in Paris or London, but it shifts the odds. In a warmer world, those shifted odds translate into more disruptive extremes.
Across the Atlantic, the US could also feel the influence. La Niña conditions tend to favour more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, increase drought risks in parts of the American Southwest, and raise flood risks in parts of the Pacific Northwest and Midwest. If a strong La Niña coincides with warmer‑than‑normal Atlantic waters, coastal communities could face heightened storm threats.
Stacking effects: natural cycles on top of human warming
The key concern is no longer just whether El Niño or La Niña appears, but what happens when those cycles sit on top of an already overheated system. Sea‑surface temperatures in large parts of the Atlantic and Pacific have repeatedly hit record highs since 2023, not only in the ENSO region.
That background warmth has several knock‑on effects:
- Heavier downpours, as warmer air can hold and release more moisture.
- Longer, hotter heatwaves over land, raising health risks in cities.
- Faster melt of mountain snowpacks, affecting river flows later in the year.
- Greater stress on marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and fisheries.
With another strong ENSO phase expected around 2026, some scientists talk about a “new climate regime”: the same old cycles, but playing out in a stadium that has already been significantly heated up.
Practical implications: from planning to personal choices
These signals from the Pacific are not just academic curiosities. Energy providers, water managers, farmers and emergency planners increasingly rely on ENSO‑based forecasts when taking decisions months ahead.
Examples of how the 2026 phase could shape choices include:
- Water management: Reservoirs might need to be drawn down ahead of expected heavy rainfall, or held higher if models point to extended droughts.
- Agriculture: Farmers may adjust crop varieties or sowing dates if a hotter, drier summer or a soggier spring is more likely.
- Cities and health services: Heat‑action plans, cooling centres, and public warnings gain urgency during ENSO‑boosted heatwaves.
For households, long‑range forecasts tied to ENSO cannot pinpoint daily weather, but they can nudge decisions: whether to invest in better home insulation, shading, or flood‑proofing; when to schedule major outdoor projects; how to prepare for fire risks at the edge of towns and forests.
Some key terms and scenarios worth unpacking
When climate reports talk about “anomalies”, they simply mean the difference between what is observed and the historical average. An anomaly of +2 °C in Pacific surface waters signals a strong El Niño. A similar negative value points to La Niña. These seemingly small numbers matter enormously for rainfall distribution and storm tracks.
Climate models run dozens or hundreds of simulations for coming years. For 2026, a cluster of those runs points toward a robust ENSO phase – likely La Niña – alongside continued high greenhouse gas concentrations. In such a scenario, global averages might dip slightly from El Niño‑boosted peaks, while some regions, from Southeast Asia to parts of Europe, face intensified extremes.
One risk comes from combinations: a hot summer aligned with soil already dried out from a weak rainy season, or a stormy winter hitting coastlines where sea level has crept a few extra centimetres higher. Those stacked factors are what turn “unusual weather” into damaging events.
As the Pacific continues to send signals, the core message for governments, businesses and communities is the same: the next phase of the climate system will not simply repeat the past. The familiar El Niño and La Niña labels now sit on a changing planet, and that shift makes attention to these signals less of a scientific curiosity and more of a practical necessity.
Originally posted 2026-02-12 05:29:23.